What is Market Coupling ? What’s happening today

🚨 What’s happening today

Major sell-off triggered by “market coupling” announcement – Shares plunged as much as 26%, marking the worst single‐day drop since IEX’s 2017 listing Reuters+15The Economic Times+15The Economic Times+15.
IEX hit the lower trading circuit (around ₹159 – ₹170), before dropping further toward ₹139–₹131, its 52‑week low The Economic TimesBusiness TodayNDTV Profit.
Seven straight sessions of decline, totaling ~33% down from recent highs The Economic TimesReuters.

🧠 What is Market Coupling?

A CERC initiative, market coupling will start in Jan 2026 for the Day‑Ahead Market (DAM). It creates a unified price across exchanges, centralizing price discovery rather than letting individual exchanges set their own rates YouTube+14Reuters+14INDmoney+14.
The system will rotate operators in a “round‑robin” structure with Grid‑India as the backup/auditor Reuters+5Reuters+5The Economic Times+5.

📉 Why is IEX crashing?

Loss of monopoly in price discovery
- IEX currently holds 84–90% of DAM & RTM market share, generating most of its revenue from these segments The Economic Times+9INDmoney+9India Today+9.
- The coupling system erodes IEX’s core business advantage, reducing control over pricing and potentially impacting margins The Economic Times+15INDmoney+15India Today+15.
Investor reaction
- Bernstein downgraded its target price from ₹160 to ₹122, calling the move “as bad as it gets” Reuters+1The Economic Times+1.
- Other brokers advised caution: one noted the RSI around 17–18 (deeply oversold), recommending a wait‑and‑watch approach with support between ₹120–₹150 The Economic Times.
Volatility & derivatives ban
- IEX was added to the NSE F&O ban list after open interest exceeded 95% of limits, blocking new futures/options positions—another hit to market sentiment The Economic Times+2NDTV Profit+2The Economic Times+2The Economic Times.

🔍 What’s next & investor strategy

Near term: Expect high volatility, with technical support zones around ₹120–₹140. Analysts suggest current levels may offer short‑term stability Business Today.
Long term: Market coupling may roll out to real‑time and term‑ahead segments eventually, further diluting IEX’s market share—but full effects will take time Reuters+7Reuters+7The Economic Times+7.
Diversification potential: IEX is investing in derivatives and gas exchange via IGX—but core revenue remains power trading.

📊 Broader market impact

PTC India, owner of Hindustan Power Exchange, surged ~8.8%, seen as a major beneficiary from coupling Upstox - Online Stock and Share Trading+15The Economic Times+15The Economic Times+15.
Overall, market sentiment is cautious—Nifty dipped ~0.17%, weighed by exports and peripheral declines Reuters+1The Economic Times+1.

✅ Final Take

The sharp fall in IEX shares reflects a structural shake‑up in India’s power trading markets. Market coupling strips away its pricing monopoly, triggering investor panic. If you’ve already invested, consider monitoring ₹120–₹150 zone for potential stabilization. Fresh investors may want to await Q1 FY26 earnings commentary on strategy and impact, or clearer signs of market adaptation.

Relevant news on IEX & market coupling